It’s now baked in the cake. The Fed will cut rates on March 18 and most likely at least twice more.

According to CME Fedwatch the odds of a rate cut in March jumped to 96.3% today from 8.9% a week ago.

Looking ahead to December, it’s highly likely at least two additional cuts are on the way.

December Rate Cut Probabilities

December Implied Rate Cuts Probabilities vs Current FF Rate

At Least 2 Cuts: 96%

At Least 3 Cuts: 77%

At Least 4 Cuts: 40.6%

What’s Happening?

Feb 19: Fed Minutes Highlight Coronavirus Concerns and Uncertainty 8 Times
Feb 24: Bond Yields Crash and Gold Soars on Pandemic Threat
Feb 25: CDC Admits Spread of Coronavirus in the US Appears Inevitable
Feb 25: Lie of the Day: This is Not a Pandemic
Feb 25: Nearly 50% Odds of “At Least” 3 Rate Cuts by December
Feb 26: Trump says We are “Very, Very Ready for the Coronavirus, for Anything”
Feb 27: Useless Act: California Monitors 8,400 People for Coronavirus; 33 Test Positive
Feb 27: Containment Fails: Coronavirus Tweets of the Day

Rate cuts odds started rising before coronavirus threat materialized on news Largest Global Shipping Decline Since 2009.


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